ISSUE #355📅Monday, 1 June 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From the Atlantic to the Middle East, today’s headlines are once again dominated by rising geopolitical flashpoints, with Western forces tightening enforcement against Russia-linked shipping while U.S.–Iran tensions continue to edge between strikes and fragile diplomacy. In parallel, Colombia is heading toward a deeply polarised runoff after a first-round surge by a far-right candidate, signalling a sharp turn in the country’s political mood.
Closer to home for Australia, a populist shake-up in polling has seen One Nation briefly surge ahead of the governing party, reflecting growing domestic frustration over economic pressures.
In today's conflict tracker, we break down why the South China Sea is heating up again, despite diplomatic progress at the top.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 01 Jun 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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French navy intercepts sanctioned tanker linked to Russia
France says its navy intercepted the sanctioned tanker Tagor in the Atlantic with support from allies including the UK. President Macron said the vessel was part of efforts to bypass international sanctions on Russia and warned that so-called "shadow fleet" tankers pose legal, environmental and security risks. The interception comes as Western nations continue efforts to restrict revenue flows linked to Moscow's war in Ukraine.
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7 injured in Iranian missile strike on US base in Kuwait
Seven people were injured after an Iranian ballistic missile strike targeted a U.S. military base in Kuwait, according to multiple media reports, marking another escalation in tensions despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Reports said four U.S. service members and three civilian contractors sustained minor injuries, while Kuwaiti air defence systems intercepted the incoming missile before debris fell onto parts of the base. The strike was reportedly launched in response to recent U.S. military action near Bandar Abbas in southern Iran.
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US says it struck Iranian drone and radar sites
The United States said it carried out “self-defence” strikes on Iranian radar installations and drone command-and-control sites over the weekend, targeting facilities in Goruk and on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said the operation was launched in response to what it described as aggressive Iranian actions, including the downing of a U.S. MQ-1 drone that Washington said was operating over international waters. American officials said the strikes destroyed air defence systems, a ground control station and multiple attack drones.
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Colombia’s Presidential candidate Espriella wins first round of vote ahead of runoff
Far-right Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won the first round of the country’s presidential election, securing the largest share of the vote and advancing to a runoff against left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda later this month. Preliminary results showed De La Espriella receiving roughly 44% of the vote compared with around 41% for Cepeda, with no candidate reaching the 50% threshold required to avoid a second round. The result sets up a highly polarised runoff centred on security, economic policy and the future direction of Colombia, as voters weigh tougher anti-crime measures against the continuation of reforms introduced under President Gustavo Petro.
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Australia’s far-right party leads in national poll for first time
Australia’s right-wing populist One Nation party has overtaken the ruling Labor government in a national opinion poll for the first time, reflecting growing voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability and recent federal budget measures. The Redbridge Group and Accent Research poll showed One Nation on 31% primary support, ahead of Labor on 28%, while support for the Liberal-National Coalition fell to 20%, highlighting continued fragmentation across Australia’s political right. Despite the result, Labor remains narrowly ahead on a two-party-preferred basis under Australia’s preferential voting system, with analysts cautioning that translating polling momentum into parliamentary seats remains a significant challenge for One Nation.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · china
The South China Sea Is Heating Up Again, Here's Why
In today's conflict tracker, we break down why the South China Sea is heating up again, despite diplomatic progress at the top.
Basedment Analysis
Is the South China Sea heading towards a new flashpoint?
The patrol that wasn't a coincidence
On Sunday, China's military and coast guard announced they had conducted patrols near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The timing was deliberate. The announcement came just one day after the Philippines and the United States wrapped up a five-day joint maritime exercise in the same waters, the third such drill this year. China did not name any specific countries in its statement, but the message was reasonably clear.
The People's Liberation Army's Southern Theatre Command framed the patrols as a response to what it called "rights violations and provocative acts." Beijing's coast guard separately said it had dealt with ships engaged in illegal activity in the area. Manila has a different word for those ships: Filipino fishermen.
The United States Coast Guard Cutter USCGC Midgett (WMSL-757) is followed closely by the Philippine Coast Guard's BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702) during fleet maneuvers in the vicinity waters of Bajo de Masinloc, West Philippine Sea
A disputed patch of water with a long history
Scarborough Shoal sits roughly 220 kilometres off the Philippine coast, well within Manila's exclusive economic zone under international law. China seized it in 2012 after a months-long standoff and has maintained a permanent presence there ever since. As recently as April, satellite imagery showed China deploying a floating barrier and vessels at the shoal's entrance, escalating tensions with the Philippines further.
Analysts have described China's approach as a pattern of grey-zone tactics, using coast guard and maritime militia vessels to assert operational control over contested waters while staying below the threshold of armed conflict and limiting the risk of a direct US response. In that context, Sunday's patrols fit a well-established playbook.
The legal picture has not changed in Manila's favour. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China's sweeping claims had no basis in international law. Beijing rejected the ruling then, and continues to reject it now.
The bigger stage: Shangri-La and what it revealed
China's patrols also coincided with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia's premier defence forum, where the South China Sea was inevitably front and centre. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, speaking on the sidelines, said Manila remains under "severe threat" from China, both territorially and politically, and that there was no sign of relief despite a broader thaw in US-China relations following a Trump-Xi summit earlier this month.
Notably, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun skipped the forum for the second year in a row, which Beijing regards as a US-led event. His absence made it harder for any productive military-to-military conversation to take place, and left China's position to be argued largely from the sidelines.
Participants attend the 23rd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 29, 2026
A thaw at the top, friction on the water
The most significant context here is the disconnect between the diplomatic level and the operational one. Trump and Xi met this month, and there has been cautious optimism in some quarters about stabilising US-China relations. But that has not translated into any visible de-escalation in the South China Sea. Beijing and Manila did restart high-level bilateral talks recently, including discussions on oil and gas cooperation in the disputed waters, the first broader bilateral discussion since 2023. Yet within days, Chinese patrols were back near Scarborough Shoal.
That gap between dialogue and action is the real story. Talks at the diplomatic level can create the impression of progress, while on the water, the slow accumulation of Chinese presence continues largely uninterrupted. For the Philippines, the question is how long resilience alone can substitute for a durable resolution, and whether any such resolution is actually on offer. Sources Available upon request
TODAY IN HISTORY (June 1, 2002): Czech Republic passes “dark-sky” law
The Czech Republic approved the world's first national law aimed at limiting light pollution, and the legislation went into effect on this day in 2002. The so-called “dark-sky law” required outdoor lighting to be more efficient: Fixtures should be shielded or directed downward to prevent light from traveling skyward. Fines could be issued to both organisations and members of the public who disregarded the measures.
