Migration: A Modern Hybrid Weapon

Geopolitics

Migration has become a modern hybrid weapon, allowing governments to pressure rivals without conventional military action. By opening borders, directing migration routes or withdrawing enforcement, states can overwhelm infrastructure, inflame political divisions and extract concessions while denying responsibility. History Repeats Itself Europe Has Seen the Ceuta Playbook Before… The extraordinary breach at Ceuta may look unprecedented, but the use of migration pressure around Spain’s North African enclaves has a history.

Preliminary Spanish security estimates suggest that more than 40,000 people, overwhelmingly Moroccans, entered Ceuta within roughly 24 hours, although a final official count is still pending. Many crossed around the Tarajal breakwater by sea; others moved through overwhelmed border controls. People have died attempting the crossing, thousands have been left without shelter, and Spain has deployed military and police reinforcements. For a city of about 84,000 residents, the scale is staggering.

But Ceuta and Melilla have faced mass assaults before. In 2005, repeated attempts to storm their fences left at least 13 people dead amid serious allegations of excessive force and mistreatment. In 2021, more than 8,000 people entered Ceuta in two days after Morocco eased border controls during a diplomatic confrontation with Madrid. Spain had allowed Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario Front, to receive medical treatment, enraging Rabat.

It’s pretty difficult to ignore the recurring pattern here… Ceuta and Melilla are the European Union’s only land borders with Africa, while Morocco does not officially recognize Spanish sovereignty over them. Their borders therefore function not only as migration routes, but also as geopolitical pressure points.

Now this is where eyebrows start getting raised. Days earlier, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria to repair relations strained by Spain’s shift toward Morocco’s autonomy proposal for Western Sahara. Algeria backs the Polisario Front, while Morocco considers the territory its own. Any Spanish rapprochement with Algiers is watched closely in Rabat. We then need to consider the fallout with both Trump and Israel.

Trump, Israel And Morocco

Donald Trump, Israel and Morocco are closely aligned through a bargain forged during Trump’s first presidency. In 2020, Washington brokered Morocco’s normalisation of relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, while Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Israel followed with its recognition in 2023. Since then, Morocco and Israel have expanded diplomatic, intelligence and defense cooperation, including a security memorandum. Trump remains committed to Israel and expanding the Accords, while Morocco values US backing on Western Sahara and Israeli military technology. Their interests converge on regional security, though this is chiefly governmental: Moroccan public opinion remains supportive of Palestinians.

Just this week, Trump announced that Morocco's Tiznit-Dakhla Expressway would be named after him. Multiple major news outlets reported the claim, yet nearly every story traced back to a single Truth Social post by Trump himself. That said, I wouldn't put it past Morocco to make the move, given Trump's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020 and the close relationship that has followed.

The Green March: Not 40,000 people — 350,000.

Remember how I said we'd seen this playbook before? Something very similar happened in 1975, except instead of 40,000 people, it involved around 350,000. During the Green March, Morocco sent hundreds of thousands of civilians into the then-Spanish territory of Western Sahara to pressure Spain into withdrawing. Madrid soon ceded control, triggering a conflict with the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, which still seeks an independent Sahrawi state. Today, Morocco administers roughly 80% of Western Sahara. In 2020, President Donald Trump became the first US president to formally recognise Moroccan sovereignty over the territory, significantly strengthening Rabat's international position despite the dispute remaining unresolved.

(Fun Fact: Morocco was the first country to recognise the United States, doing so in December 1777… The situation became complicated for a short while afterward but worked out in the end)

Trump To Spain:

They Are Not Behaving Nicely, But They’ll Learn Questions are being asked whether this was a joint Israeli-U.S.-Morocco plan to damage the image of Prime Minister Sanchez. While sounding conspiratorial, the precedence and hostilities are there. Relations between Donald Trump’s administration and Spain have deteriorated over defence spending, trade and Madrid’s opposition to US-Israeli military action against Iran. Sánchez refused to raise defence expenditure to Trump’s preferred five percent of GDP and denied use of Spanish bases for attacks on Iran. Trump has responded by calling Spain a “terrible partner” and “lost cause,” floating its removal from NATO, threatening punitive tariffs and, most recently, demanding an end to US trade with Spain. Some threats remain legally vague because EU institutions control trade policy. Madrid has maintained that the alliance remains mutually beneficial and refuses to retreat. At the beginning of this month Trump made an ominous threat towards Spain during a rally stating “ah the Spanish… they are not behaving nicely, but they’ll learn soon after they relinquish their grip on Cuba, Philippines, Puerto Rico, they were all ours…” See Trump Quote

Relations with Israel have gotten even worse, significantly deteriorating since Madrid recognised Palestine in 2024 and criticized Israel’s conduct in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Spain has backed arms restrictions, pressed the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, withdrawn its ambassador and demanded accountability under international law. Israel has accused Sánchez’s government of siding with Hamas and Iran, barred Spanish ministers, recalled diplomatic representation and excluded Spain from a Gaza ceasefire-monitoring body. Netanyahu recently accused Madrid of waging “diplomatic war” and warned that Spain would “pay a price”— a deliberately vague threat. Madrid continues advocating Palestinian statehood and sanctions against Israeli officials.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Son in 2019 making some stark remarks on twitter.

Analysts and commentators are thus suggesting that what we’re seeing here is not an organic migration but one that is controlled and being used as a political weapon. The precedents are there as are the growing hostilities between said parties. Still, suspicion is not proof. No public evidence currently establishes that Morocco organised this breach. Sánchez has said Moroccan cooperation during the present crisis has been constant and constructive, unlike in 2021. Smuggling networks, social-media mobilisation, economic despair and a recent Spanish court ruling may also have contributed.

Other Examples

Turkey leveraged its role as host to millions of refugees to pressure the EU. Under the 2016 migration deal, Ankara restricted crossings for funding and cooperation. In 2020, Erdoğan opened routes toward Greece after threatening to “open the gates.” Thousands reached the Evros border, becoming bargaining chips in wider disputes.

Belarus created a more deliberate operation in 2021, facilitating flights, visas and transport for Middle Eastern migrants toward Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. NATO described an artificially created crisis forming part of a hybrid campaign. Migrants were trapped between hostile security forces, sometimes in freezing forests, while Belarus pressured the EU. Sources Available upon request