Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition opens with Australia strengthening its support for Ukraine, while Trump rolls out the red carpet for Xi and Rubio talks security and sanctions with India’s foreign minister.
Norway is directing fresh aid to Palestinians, while renewed Pakistani strikes in Afghanistan add another flashpoint to the geopolitical map.
And, today we head to China, where Xi has continued his purge of military officials - is it the right move however? We also address the F35 parts that secretly made into Chinese hands.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have signed a bilateral security agreement in New York, establishing a framework for long-term defence and security cooperation. The agreement covers military training, defence-industry partnerships, possible joint production of air-defence systems, missiles and drones, as well as support for energy security, reconstruction, demining and Ukrainian veterans. Australia also announced an additional A$60 million assistance package, joined a coalition supporting Ukraine’s navy and imposed further sanctions on Russia, bringing its total support for Ukraine to almost A$1.9 billion.
Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump personally welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan at Joint Base Andrews, an unusual gesture because visiting leaders are normally received at the White House. Xi’s first US state visit in more than a decade began with a red-carpet ceremony and military flyover before high-level talks on trade, artificial intelligence, rare-earth supplies and Taiwan. Washington and Beijing also extended their trade truce by two months until 10 January, giving negotiators additional time to pursue a broader agreement.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The ministers reaffirmed the importance of the US-India strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific and discussed the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gulf. Jaishankar raised India’s concerns over potential US sanctions and tariffs on countries trading with Russia and Iran, while Rubio said Washington could help regional partners address their energy-security needs.
Norway has announced an additional 125 million Norwegian crowns (US$13.17 million) in aid for Palestinians through the United Nations and World Bank. The funding includes budget support for the Palestinian public sector as Gaza continues to face severe shortages of food, clean water, electricity and healthcare. The contribution brings Norway’s total assistance to Palestinians in 2026 to approximately one billion crowns.
Pakistan carried out air and drone strikes against 10 locations in Afghanistan that it said were being used to launch and store drones targeting Pakistani territory. Afghanistan said the strikes hit Kandahar, Paktia and Khost provinces, killing four civilians, while denying that its forces had launched drones at Pakistan. The latest exchange marks a sharp escalation between the neighbours, with Islamabad accusing Kabul of harbouring anti-Pakistan militants and the Taliban government rejecting the allegation.
Asia-Pacific China’s extraordinary military purge deepened again this week, with General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli formally expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army. Zhang was one of China’s most powerful military figures, serving as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and previously regarded as a close military ally of Xi Jinping. Liu headed the PLA’s Joint Staff Department. Beijing has accused both men of serious disciplinary violations, corruption, forming political cliques and disloyalty. Their cases have now been transferred to military prosecutors.
The expulsions formalise a remarkable collapse at the top of the PLA. Zhang and Liu had already been removed from the state Central Military Commission in August, leaving Xi as one of only two active members of what had previously been a seven-member body. Reuters reports that analysts believe the continuing removals could temporarily disrupt command effectiveness and military readiness, even as they further consolidate Xi’s political control over the armed forces.
Historically, large-scale military purges can create serious disruption, at least in the short term. One of the most extreme examples was Stalin’s purge of the Soviet officer corps before the Second World War, which severely disrupted parts of the Red Army’s command structure. China today is obviously a very different case, but the broader lesson remains relevant: removing experienced senior officers can carry consequences for military cohesion, institutional knowledge and decision-making. There are several layers to Xi’s purge. One possibility is that he is attempting to further consolidate political control over the military. A more centralised command structure, dominated by officers personally loyal to Xi, could make it easier to implement his foreign and defence policy without significant internal resistance.
The trade-off is the quality of the people replacing those who have been removed. Who replaces the purged commanders? Are they selected primarily for competence, or for political loyalty? If Xi believes his hold on power is under threat, loyalty may become the overriding consideration, even if that comes at the expense of experience or institutional independence. That distinction matters enormously for the PLA. Political consolidation may strengthen Xi’s authority over the armed forces while simultaneously weakening aspects of military organisation, initiative and cohesion. This becomes particularly important as China continues to increase military pressure around Taiwan, where any major operation would require an exceptionally complex level of coordination across the PLA’s air, naval, missile and ground forces.
Meanwhile we’re seeing one the most surreal intelligence leaks in recent history, as a potentially serious F-35 security breach involving Australia and China has emerged. Components from an Australian F-35A were being shipped to the United States for inspection, repair or disposal in late May when the shipment was unexpectedly diverted through South Korea to Hong Kong. Bloomberg reported this week that the Chinese government subsequently took possession of the parts and has not returned them. Again, it seems history repeats itself as Australia had a lacklustre reputation among its U.S. and U.K. intelligence allies during the Cold War for a number of leaks. I won’t jump the gun too soon and blame Australian officials, but serious questions need to be answered soon.
The shipment reportedly included an F-35 cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door, both coated with radar-absorbing material designed to reduce the aircraft’s radar signature. This has raised concerns that China could examine the components for information about the F-35’s stealth characteristics or potentially identify vulnerabilities in the aircraft’s design.
However, Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has played down the severity of the incident, saying Canberra does not believe technologically sensitive components were compromised. Lockheed Martin has similarly described the missing equipment as unserviceable and presenting a low exploitation risk. The United States, Australia and Lockheed Martin are now investigating how equipment belonging to one of the world’s most sensitive combat-aircraft programs was diverted into Chinese-controlled territory in the first place.
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