Underwater Drones In Ukraine Is The U.S. Prepared?

What Happened?

On the 16th of December, the SBU released footage of what appeared to be a hacked security camera panning to the moment of underwater detonation next to a Kilo-class submarine. Early reporting was quick to suggest the submarine was either destroyed or beyond repair. However,sSatellite imagery following Ukraine’s strike on the submarine in Novorossiysk shows visible damage to the pier, indicating the use of a substantial explosive charge. While the full extent of damage to the submarine remains unclear, imagery suggests the vessel’s bow may have been affected. Russian state media did release their own photos, however, not from the side of where the explosion happened. Repair options are limited: Russia’s main submarine repair hub in Sevastopol has already been hit by Ukrainian strikes, previously destroying the Rostov-on-Don.

It is still unclear which submarine was damaged. Russia’s Kalibr-capable Black Sea fleet includes B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Veliky Novgorod, and B-271 Kolpino — all Project 636 “Varshavyanka” (Kilo-class) submarines. These diesel-electric boats typically carry crews of 52, operate up to 45 days, dive to 300 meters, and are prized for their low acoustic signature, earning the nickname “Black Hole.” Each submarine is valued at roughly $400–500 million. Whether repairs are feasible, and how long they would take, remains unknown.

Satellite imagery before the attack.

Yellow is the damage to the pier, the sub is circled in white.

Which Drone Was Used?

Ruslan Leviev (founder of CITeam) notes that details about Ukraine’s reported “Sub Sea Baby” underwater drone remain unclear, but suggests it likely resembles earlier systems like Toloka. Rather than a true deep-running torpedo-style drone, it is probably a submersible operating near the surface, using a mast for GPS and Starlink communications. Fully underwater control would require far more complex inertial navigation. Such mast-based designs are easier to detect than true underwater drones.

Is The U.S Prepared For This New Type of War?

Ukraine’s ability to target and dismantle Russia’s Black Sea Fleet without possessing a traditional navy will be studied for decades. We are watching a real-time case study unfold, with few historical precedents for this form of naval warfare. While opponents of Russia may mock what are, objectively, embarrassing failures, this assessment comes from a non-biased perspective. These are not isolated incidents, but repeated successful strikes on submarines and surface vessels inside heavily protected zones using drones.

Russia has adapted tactically, but it has not yet absorbed the full strategic lesson. More importantly, the Western world is no better prepared for this new era of naval warfare. U.S. naval bases lack anti-drone netting, hardened underwater defenses, or effective countermeasures against an “Operation Spider Web”-style attack on critical ports.

At the same time, underwater drones in the United States are advancing rapidly across both military and commercial roles. Programs like DARPA’s Manta Ray, the Navy’s Orca XLUUV, and REMUS focus on long-endurance autonomous missions such as seabed mapping, mine countermeasures, and intelligence collection, while commercial systems like Terradepth and Kongsberg’s HUGIN expand deep-sea surveying and infrastructure inspection. The concern, however, is cost and complexity. The U.S. Marine Corps’ new FPV drone reportedly costs around $70,000 per unit, compared to Ukrainian FPVs that cost a few hundred to roughly $1,000. The Military Industrial Complex loves to throw big price tags on these items, but inevitably this will prove a major kink in the armour.

There is some hope. South Korea’s Hanwha has partnered with U.S. startup Vatn Systems to develop low-cost autonomous underwater drones for the U.S. Navy, aiming to scale undersea surveillance and strike capabilities amid growing competition with China.

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