ISSUE #442📅Tuesday, 16 June 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From a tragic military crash in California to new diplomatic flashpoints stretching from Jerusalem to Beijing, today’s headlines move across a world very much in motion.
Global leaders are gathering at the G7 in France to wrestle with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, while smaller but strategic states like Lithuania and Myanmar are quietly reshaping their political and regional alignments. It’s a day that blends high-level diplomacy, shifting alliances, and stark reminders of the risks that sit beneath global power politics.
In today’s Conflict Tracker we provide an update on Kostyantynivka as the city enters what may be its last days.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 16 Jun 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Eight crew believed dead in California B-52 bomber crash
Eight people are believed to have been killed after a U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress crashed shortly after takeoff from Edwards Air Force Base in California during a routine test mission. Air Force officials said the aircraft went down at approximately 11:20 a.m. local time, with initial assessments indicating the crash was not survivable and prompting a major emergency response at the base. The cause of the accident remains under investigation, with authorities working to determine what led to one of the deadliest B-52 incidents in recent decades.
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Somaliland opens Jerusalem ‘embassy’ as Irro meets Netanyahu
Somaliland officially opened a diplomatic mission in Jerusalem during President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro’s historic visit to Israel, where he held talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli leaders. The visit marks a significant step in bilateral relations following Israel’s decision in December 2025 to become the first UN member state to formally recognise Somaliland’s independence. Both sides said discussions focused on expanding cooperation in areas including trade, technology, security and investment, while Somaliland continues its broader push for international recognition.
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G7 leaders open summit talks on Ukraine and the Middle East
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations have opened summit talks in Évian-les-Bains, France, with discussions centred on the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and broader global security challenges. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined the summit at France’s invitation, as leaders weighed additional support for Kyiv and explored diplomatic pathways to end the conflict with Russia. The recently announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework is also expected to feature prominently in discussions, alongside trade, energy security, artificial intelligence and the outlook for the global economy.
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Lithuania set to appoint new Prime Minister, ruling party says
Lithuania’s ruling Social Democratic Party has nominated a new prime ministerial candidate as it moves to stabilise the government following a coalition reshuffle and the removal of a junior coalition partner. Party leader Mindaugas Sinkevičius said the nominee is expected to lead a revised governing coalition focused on maintaining parliamentary stability and continuing Lithuania’s strong support for Ukraine and NATO. The appointment comes at a sensitive time for the Baltic state, as regional security concerns remain elevated amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and broader tensions along NATO’s eastern flank.
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China, Myanmar pursue deeper ties as leaders hold talks in Beijing
China and Myanmar have agreed to deepen bilateral ties following high-level talks in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar’s leadership, as both sides seek to strengthen political, economic and security cooperation. The discussions reportedly focused on infrastructure development under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, border stability, and joint efforts to address regional security challenges amid Myanmar’s ongoing internal conflict. Beijing reiterated its support for Myanmar’s sovereignty and political transition process, while both governments emphasised the importance of maintaining stability along their shared border.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · middle east
Ukrainian Commanders Replaced Over Kostyantynivka Collapse
Today we provide an update on Kostyantynivka as the city enters what may be its last days.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Russia-Ukraine
Kostiantynivka Update The situation around Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces as Russian troops press forward along multiple axes designed to fracture the wider Donetsk fortress belt.
North of Kostiantynivka, Russian assault groups have continued infiltrating positions around Stupochky and the outskirts of Chervone, seeking to further disrupt the remaining Ukrainian logistics routes supporting the Chasiv Yar garrison. This effort aligns with Russia's broader campaign of isolating strongpoints rather than relying solely on costly frontal assaults, a tactic increasingly observed across the eastern front.
Further south, Russian forces have consolidated control of Novodmytrivka and a network of trench systems surrounding the settlement. From these positions, Russian troops are advancing into Molocharka while simultaneously pushing toward the Chervonyi district in eastern Kostiantynivka. Additional gains have also been reported from the Sobornosti Avenue axis, where Russian units have expanded their presence in the Shanghai and Hora districts.
The most significant developments, however, have occurred in western Kostiantynivka. Following a Ukrainian withdrawal from several defensive sectors, Russian forces secured the Ukrayinsky Khutir, Zinkovy, and Mykolaivskyi districts, alongside the Megatex industrial complex and the Hospital City area. Russian troops now appear to control more than half of the city, with fighting increasingly concentrated around the chemical plant, the former Stroysteklo industrial zone, and the Nahalivka and Novoselivka districts.
Meanwhile, west of the city, Russian forces continue expanding their gains around Dovha Balka. After capturing a series of plantations south of the settlement, Russian units advanced beyond the village and reached Rozkishne. The eastern portion of Dovha Balka has also reportedly fallen, leaving the remaining Ukrainian garrison in the centre of the settlement in an increasingly precarious position.
Recent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War have continued to highlight Kostiantynivka as one of the key gateways to Ukraine's remaining defensive network in northern Donetsk. Should Russian forces successfully secure the city and continue disrupting supply routes into Chasiv Yar, pressure on the wider Sloviansk–Kramatorsk defensive line is likely to increase substantially.
Suriyak info and map source.
The Controversy with the 28th and 156th Mechanised Brigades
Following the localised collapse of Ukrainian defensive positions in May that contributed to the worsening situation around Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reportedly dismissed the commanders of both the 28th and 156th Mechanised Brigades.
According to military analyst @Thorkill65, the commander of the 28th Mechanised Brigade oversaw the wider Kostyantynivka defensive grouping, coordinating multiple units responsible for the city's defence. Meanwhile, the 156th Mechanised Brigade held positions around Illinivka, where one of the two major Russian breakthroughs toward Kostyantynivka occurred.
Reports suggest the breach was partly caused by ineffective reconnaissance drone operations, insufficient FPV drone availability for strike missions, and broader organisational shortcomings. A company commander from the brigade reportedly claimed that large numbers of poorly trained personnel had been assigned to the unit rather than being distributed among more experienced formations.
Ukrainian authorities are also reportedly reviewing the status of several positions and strongpoints around Kostyantynivka amid concerns that some commanders may have overstated territorial control to higher headquarters. If confirmed, this could help explain the growing discrepancy between battlefield realities and publicly available mapping projects in the sector.
TODAY IN HISTORY (June 16, 1963): First woman in space
On this day in 1963, Soviet cosmonaut Valentina V. Tereshkova became the first woman to travel in space, having been launched into orbit aboard the spacecraft Vostok 6, which completed 48 orbits in 71 hours.
