Ukraine War Update: Huliaipole-Pokrovske and Kostiantynivka.

Fighting has intensified across the Pokrovskaya and Huliaipole fronts as both sides expand reconnaissance-in-force operations. Since late December, Ukrainian DRG units increased activity around Vishneve, briefly entering the settlement before being eliminated. At the same time, Ukrainian forces crossed the Haichur River south of Nove Zaporizhzhya and north of Varvarivka, pushing several kilometres into sparsely held terrain. Russian units have since stabilised the line and are mopping up remaining infiltrators. In early January, Russian DRGs launched counter-operations in Pryluky, Zelene, Sviatopetrivka, and Staroukrainka, where intermittent skirmishing continues, signalling a mutual shift toward probing actions ahead of larger manoeuvres.

Zaliznychne is a tactically important village and Ukraine has launched localised counterattacks in recent days to dispel Russian attempts to enter the village. Why, you might be asking? This village sits on elevated heights which, if taken, will provide Russian units with a launching pad to begin pushing westwards – outflanking the fortifications systems that point southward. This would therefore explain the attempts to flank around the village which will force pressure on Ukrainian units to pullback, given that early frontal assaults were pushed back.

Kostiantynivka To paraphrase for Playfra, who has good contacts around this part of the frontline: The situation remains negative (for Ukraine), with trends offering little encouragement. In the Berestok sector, Russian forces have again penetrated toward the southern outskirts and pushed as far as northern Illinivka, expanding the grey zone beyond the former blockpost. This is no longer an isolated incident; Russian infantry are confirmed present, including wounded, and the situation remains under clarification. In Ivanopillya, Russian groups continue moving through the settlement and attempting westward crossings toward Berestok, so far without success. Around Kostyantynivka, Russian forces are massing in the Dacha area and conducting deep raids across the highway and rail lines, though no lasting gains are expected. In Predtechyne, attacks along the highway persist but are being repelled.

We’re seeing similar trends that we saw in Pokrovsk and Huliaipole, where DRG units did not have significant difficulty entering the cities. The problem for Ukrainian units defending this front is that it’s a large target for FAB strikes – which have become extremely accurate. Unit blocks that are identified as defensive positions are simply quad tapped by 500kg FAB’s. What is interesting to me is that these DRG units are having success whilst Ukraine still holds the western flank. Another issue is in recent months the main supply roads connecting the city to Kramatorsk-Sloviansk is a hotspot for FPV drone targetting, which has complicated logistics substantially. Most expect to see Russian units pushing east of Nove Shakove in an attempt to create a pincer movement on Kostyantynivka. However, if they can enter and most importantly consolidate, we might not see a focus on this pincer movement just yet.

Playfra Map

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