Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition begins at 35,000 feet with a dramatic Flydubai diversion, before Belgium warns Europe to brace for a winter of Russian hybrid threats.
Iran has received Washington’s response to its latest peace proposal, New Zealand is officially in election mode, and Syrian authorities are investigating a deadly bus attack in Homs.
Then, today’s Conflict Tracker turns to Ukraine as we see more evidence that the tank is still appreciated on the modern battlefield. Recent footage shows a pair of turtle tanks conducting a mission under the cover of drones.
Flydubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, after a violent cockpit incident caused the aircraft to descend rapidly, with all 174 passengers landing safely. Israeli officials said the co-pilot stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the aircraft before passengers and crew subdued him, while Flydubai confirmed only that an “altercation” occurred in the cockpit. Both pilots were taken to hospital, the passengers later continued to Tel Aviv aboard a replacement aircraft, and authorities are investigating the co-pilot’s motive.
Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken has warned that Europe faces a “dark winter” as Russia is expected to intensify hybrid operations including cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation and drone incursions. Speaking at a defence summit in Brussels, Francken described Russia as Belgium’s greatest security threat and called for faster investment in air defences, military production and Ukrainian counter-drone technology. European intelligence agencies assess that Moscow is likely to increase covert pressure on NATO countries in the coming months, although officials say there is no evidence of an imminent conventional attack and Russia denies involvement in hybrid operations.
Iran says it has received an official US response to its latest proposal for ending the seven-month conflict, although Tehran has not disclosed Washington’s position. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the response to President Masoud Pezeshkian after Qatari mediators conveyed it during his return from the UN General Assembly, according to Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani. Iran’s proposal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week in exchange for measures including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and easing oil sanctions, but disagreements reportedly remain over the timing and order of implementation.
New Zealand’s 54th Parliament was formally dissolved on Wednesday, beginning the constitutional process ahead of the 7 November general election. The legislature held its final sitting on 23 September, and any unfinished bills, petitions or committee business have now lapsed, although the next Parliament may reinstate them. The election is expected to be closely contested between Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right coalition and a Labour-led opposition bloc, with the cost of living, economic management and public services among the leading campaign issues.
At least seven people were killed and four wounded when unidentified gunmen opened fire on a passenger bus near the Masyaf Bridge in Syria’s western Homs province on Wednesday evening. Syrian authorities said the bus was carrying civilian workers and employees returning home, with emergency crews transporting the casualties to hospitals across the governorate. Security forces secured the scene and opened an investigation, while no suspects have been identified, no group has claimed responsibility and the motive remains unknown.
Russia-Ukraine Ukrainian forces reportedly used heavily protected “turtle tanks” to assault Russian positions near Vilkhuvatka in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating how armour can still operate under the threat of FPV drones. I will keep posting about this, because I cannot stand the slander from those who say the tank is outdated.
Fighters from the 475th Separate Assault Regiment, “Code 9.2,” advanced with tanks fitted with protective screens, approaching Russian strongpoints before engaging them at close range. According to the account, Russian forces attempted to stop the assault with FPV strikes and mines, but the tanks survived the engagement, fired on their targets and withdrew safely.
The vehicles were supported by a Vampire heavy bomber drone, an FPV drone and a Mavic providing overwatch. This coordination is the significant detail: the tanks operated alongside unmanned systems that could observe the battlefield and support their advance.
The tanks were fitted out as turtle tanks. Essentially stacked with protective screens that makes it look like a moving shed. It cannot make a tank invulnerable, but offers far more protection. Their value depends on the threat, coverage and circumstances of each impact. Likewise, surviving one engagement does not establish that this configuration can consistently defeat drones or mines. The tank is not meant to be invincible, the combined arms operation and protection is meant to extend the effectiveness of the tank during combat.
However, the operation illustrates why writing off tanks entirely remains premature. Armour still provides protected mobility and direct firepower, particularly when crews can approach defended positions with reconnaissance and supporting fires. The unit reportedly developed from a reconnaissance platoon within the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, making its integration of drones and armour particularly notable.
The broader lesson is that tank effectiveness increasingly depends on the systems operating around it. Protection, observation, coordination and a viable withdrawal route all matter. This reported assault offers one example of that adaptation, rather than evidence that armour’s vulnerabilities have disappeared.

TODAY IN HISTORY (Oct 1, 1949): People’s Republic of China established
In Beijing, with most of the Chinese mainland held by the communist People’s Liberation Army, its dynamic leader, Mao Zedong, proclaimed the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on this day in 1949.

Today’s Conflict Tracker turns to the Lyman and Sloviansk front as Russia launches frantic counterattacks after significant localised advances.
Renewed war in northern Ethiopia is reshaping regional alliances, threatening stability across the Horn of Africa and potentially complicating external support for Sudan’s RSF.
Today we break down the suspected terror plot targeting RAF Fairford, how a woman driving home from the pub may have accidentally disrupted it, and why the incident is drawing immediate attention amid the ongoing Iran conflict.
Sources available upon request