Ukraine Peace Plan Released (Part 2)

Continuing From Yesterday

Yesterday we finished off with the other considerations, so we will kick off with them too.

Let’s paint a clearer picture of Ukraine’s current situation, both internal and external. Russian troops are pressing forward across the key axes of Siversk and Kupiansk. We’re also seeing consolidation on the Pokrovsk front and further Russian movement toward Pokrovske in the south. DRG units are being employed extensively around Lyman and Kostyantynivka. And after months of brutal urban fighting, Russia seems to be making renewed progress in Vovchansk. Ukrainian resistance remains firm, there are clashes again inside Chasiv Yar, but overall, the trend is worrying.

The internal political picture isn’t much better which isn’t presenting a good look. With the energy corruption scandal expanding, many expected Zelensky to dismiss his right-hand man, Andriy Yermak. Instead, Zelensky rejected calls from European Solidarity to sack both Yermak and Defence Secretary Rustem Umerov. MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak claims the president’s office is preparing to frame the scandal as having a “Russian trace,” to target investigators, and potentially suppress media coverage—continuing earlier attempts to undermine NABU and SAP. All of this comes as Kyiv faces a budget shortfall and must continue persuading Western partners to finance the war effort.

What do I mean by “not a good look”? Since the start of the war, Zelensky has been on a political mission to achieve two things at once: prove Ukraine can fight and win, while simultaneously showing the world the brutal toll Russia is inflicting on the country. That mission has never been more critical than now, with President Trump positioning himself at the centre of peace-talk discussions.

To add to this, while this has all been happening U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll and a senior military delegation are in Kyiv (the highest-level visit under Trump) on a fact-finding mission to discuss Ukraine’s battlefield situation and potential ceasefire options. However, according to the WSJ the newly released plan was worked on jointly between the U.S. and Ukraine. Other analysts commented on the role that Qatar and Turkey are allegedly having in this peace process, which strengthens notions that peace might happen. This could be true, but there are a foundational issues within the 28-point plan.

Trust Being The Foundation Of Peace…But There's No Trust

We’re not going to break down all 28 points here — that would be an essay in itself, and maybe something for a long-format video (let us know if you’d want that). My early view is that the first framework released (the one we covered yesterday) was either an extremely early draft or a Russian-proposed version. The fact that no one wanted to discuss it publicly may support this; they may have been waiting for the final iteration.

This updated draft is not as blatantly Russia-maximalist as the previous one. There are sensible elements: using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, shared administration of the nuclear power plant, a full exchange of prisoners and deported children, humanitarian committees, and other confidence-building steps. But the problem is obvious: all of this rests on trust, and right now, there is none.

From Ukraine’s viewpoint, the deal effectively hands the current frontline to Russia on the promise that Moscow won’t attack again. The main enforcement mechanism is that if Russia breaks the agreement, global sanctions would be reinstated and any new territorial gains would be legally invalidated. But how much does that matter? Russia is already under extreme sanctions and is still grinding forward in an attritional war while consolidating occupied regions. And losing the remainder of Donetsk would mean Ukraine forfeiting its largest defensive network, among the strongest in the world.

For Russia, the commitment to remain under a 600,000-troop cap raises questions. Would paramilitary groups count? What about mobilised reservists? Ukraine would also retain a sizeable mobilised force. And meanwhile, drone warfare will only accelerate — in 10–20 years the role of infantry may be radically reduced, if not fundamentally transformed. The 600k number itself is revealing: if that is the cap, what is Ukraine’s actual military size today? As another note, I will mention I don’t think European leaders will be too happy with this agreement for a number of reasons.

Finally, both leaders’ red lines are well known. Putin has repeatedly stated that he wants full control over what Russia claims as its “legal” territory — all of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Zelensky has repeatedly stated he will not surrender any Ukrainian land in negotiations. For this deal to work, both men would need to walk away from their hardline positions — highly unlikely, but if it ends the war, that is the trade-off on the table.

These are just some of the issues, but the underlying problem is the same: everything relies on trust. With the EU excluded from this process and the credibility of the U.S. as a security guarantor being questioned globally, this framework feels shaky at best at this time. However, I would say this is a step toward peace if both sides want to end the war. And this is fundamentally the question, does Putin want this war to end?

Let us know your thoughts!

Bonus

: I’ve also had the sense that this document wasn’t drafted by people deeply embedded in foreign policy — the wording simply isn’t legalistic enough. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, made a similar observation. Russian diplomatic style typically involves highly detailed, heavily formatted, and exhaustive position papers — none of which is present here. She argues that Moscow may view this proposal as a “big bird in the sky”: something vague, aspirational, and ultimately lacking any real substance because of its weak and imprecise wording.

And this is fundamentally the question, does Putin want this war to end?

Let us know your thoughts!

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