Spain Holds Firm Against Trump As Iranian Missile Salvo's Drop.

As the conflict enters its fifth day, we are seeing a significant decline in Iranian ballistic missile salvos — something we have covered previously. That said, the drone campaign has continued. The reduction in missile launches has allowed air defenses to focus more heavily on intercepting drones. However, this does not necessarily help in the long term; million-dollar interceptor missiles are being used to shoot down drones that cost only $35,000–$50,000 and are relatively simple to produce.

U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue across Iran, striking targets in Tehran, Shiraz, Bushehr, Qom, Tabriz, and Kermanshah, primarily focusing on air defenses and missile launchers. With Iranian air defenses struggling, U.S. and Israeli aircraft and drones are operating with increasing freedom. Much of Iran’s navy has reportedly been sunk, and large parts of its air force destroyed. Continuous strike operations are sustained by aerial refueling tankers circling over Syria and Iraq.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are considering retaliatory strikes inside Iran. Western forces are also increasing deployments: Greek naval and air assets have been sent to support Cyprus’ defense, French Rafale fighters and a frigate have been deployed to the region, UK F-35s are operating from Cyprus, and the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is en route to the Mediterranean.

On the Lebanese front, Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been in combat as Israel orders the evacuation of around 80 villages in southern Lebanon. So far, Hezbollah’s involvement has not had a meaningful impact on the wider conflict. Notably, fighting escalated following unannounced Israeli airstrikes, which drew widespread international condemnation.

Overall, the focus is gradually shifting toward the possibility of regime change on the ground. At present, there is no evidence of a coup or internal uprising that could collapse the regime. The military apparatus and the Revolutionary Guard remain loyal, while protests have largely been subdued. The next few days will be critical. Sources indicate that Israeli and American intelligence has been supplying Kurdish militant groups on Iran-Iraq border. In the last 24 hours, Iran has bombed these sites — as the world watches a possible ground incursion backed by US air support.