ISSUE #441📅30 Sept 2026⏱4 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition brings two political firsts, with Ana Brnabić stepping in as Serbia’s acting president and Fatima Zahra El Mansouri becoming Morocco’s first female prime minister.
Elsewhere, America’s final troops leave Iraq amid Kurdish unease, Russian attacks intensify around Kyiv, and Norway’s political establishment faces uncomfortable questions over links to Jeffrey Epstein.
Then, today’s Conflict Tracker turns to the Lyman and Sloviansk front as Russia launches frantic counterattacks after significant localised advances.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 30 Sept 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Ana Brnabić becomes first openly gay president of Serbia
Ana Brnabić has become Serbia’s acting president following Aleksandar Vučić’s resignation, making her the first openly gay person to serve as the country’s head of state and the first in the Balkans. Brnabić, a close Vučić ally and outgoing parliamentary speaker, previously served as Serbia’s first female and openly gay prime minister from 2017 to 2024. She will perform presidential duties temporarily while Serbia holds an early presidential election within 90 days, as Vučić campaigns to become prime minister in the 25 October parliamentary vote.
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As the last US troops exit Iraq, Kurdish fears rise and militias celebrate
The remaining US troops were scheduled to leave Iraq on Wednesday under a 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad, ending the military mission that returned in 2014 to fight Islamic State. Kurdish authorities warned that the withdrawal of American personnel and air-defence systems could leave the autonomous region exposed after more than 1,000 reported Iranian missile and drone attacks during the recent conflict. Iran-aligned militias celebrated the departure as a restoration of Iraqi sovereignty, although several powerful groups have resisted disarmament and Baghdad has postponed its deadline for removing non-state weapons until June 2027.
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Russian strikes kill at least three, as attacks on Ukraine intensify
Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and the surrounding region killed at least three people, including a child, and injured seven others early on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian officials. The attacks sparked fires and damaged homes, warehouses, a shop, vehicles and other infrastructure across the capital and neighbouring communities. The barrage followed several days of intensified Russian air attacks using ballistic missiles and faster jet-powered drones, prompting Poland and Romania to deploy military aircraft to protect their airspace.
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Norway Parliament probes Epstein links to politicians, diplomats
Norway’s parliament has opened public hearings into links between Jeffrey Epstein and Norwegian politicians and diplomats following the release of millions of US Justice Department documents. Eleven current and former foreign and development ministers have been summoned, including Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, who says he had no relationship with Epstein, while former foreign minister Børge Brende resigned from the World Economic Forum after his contacts became public. A separate parliamentary commission will examine whether the relationships compromised government integrity or national interests, while police investigations into several former officials remain ongoing and those involved deny criminal wrongdoing.
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Fatima Zahra El Mansouri named as Morocco’s first female prime minister
Morocco’s King Mohammed VI has appointed Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri as prime minister, making her the first woman to lead the country’s government. El Mansouri’s centrist Authenticity and Modernity Party won 97 seats in the 395-member parliament, the largest total in last week’s election but well short of a majority, leaving her to negotiate a governing coalition. The former urban-planning minister and Marrakesh mayor will oversee economic reforms and preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which Morocco will co-host with Spain and Portugal.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Russia Launches Fresh Counterattacks Attempting To Stabilise Frontline
Today’s Conflict Tracker turns to the Lyman and Sloviansk front as Russia launches frantic counterattacks after significant localised advances.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Russia-Ukraine The status of the emergency Russian counterattacks in the Mykolaivka direction has begun to surface, although the situation remains extremely confusing and complex.
According to Hudson War Mapping, Russian assault groups scrambled into the area have likely re-entered Starodubivka and approached Mykolaivka again, attempting to reverse Ukraine’s recent gains south of the Siverskyi Donets River. These reports suggest Moscow is trying to exploit Ukrainian positions before they can be properly consolidated.
This follows substantial Ukrainian advances reported by AMK Mapping, including the recapture of Pyskunivka, a foothold at Kryva Luka and renewed penetration into Rai-Oleksandrivka. However, the extent to which either side has established durable control remains uncertain.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets’s September 29 assessment provides a more restrained picture. He reported Russian efforts to secure Starodubivka and Pyskunivka while infiltrating toward Mykolaivka and the Slovyansk thermal power plant. However, the main Russian forward forces remained along the Kryva Luka–northeastern Rai-Oleksandrivka line, with smaller assault groups operating further west. Their presence should therefore be distinguished from confirmed territorial control.
Crucially, Mashovets assessed that Ukrainian forces retained Mykolaivka and prevented Russian infiltration into the power plant area. Ukrainian counterattacks from Orikhuvatka toward Rai-Oleksandrivka also reportedly pushed Russian infantry away from the canal toward the settlement’s western outskirts, reducing pressure on Mykolaivka.
Further north, ISW’s September 28 assessment recorded continued Ukrainian counterattacks around Lyman and no Russian advances there on September 27–28. Russian sources also reported Ukrainian efforts to push their forces back across the Zherebets River.
So overall, the emerging picture suggests a struggle to consolidate gains across a fragmented front. Russia appears to be contesting Ukraine’s recent advances, but claims that it has decisively reversed them remain premature. Whether these infiltrations become sustained positions will determine how much of Ukraine’s progress survives this latest round of counterattacks over the coming days.
Source @Hudsonwarmap Via X
Geopolitics
Sources available upon request
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Tweet of the Day
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Tweet of the Day
big content guy
@bigcontentguy · Twitter / X
every now and then he’ll reach back for something extra in the tank and paint one at 98 on the corner
TODAY IN HISTORY (Sep 30, 1938): Munich Agreement signed
The notorious Munich Agreement, in which Britain’s Neville Chamberlain encouraged Britain and France to appease Adolf Hitler’s demands in the hope of preventing World War II, was reached on this day in 1938.
