Russia Continues To Take Serious Losses On Donetsk & Lyman Front

Conflict Tracker

Russia-Ukraine The situation around Lyman has shifted considerably over the past ten days, with Ukrainian forces continuing a broad counteroffensive that has pushed Russian troops away from several of their earlier forward positions. I’ll be primarily using AMK_Mapping as the information source but I will provide further analysis on why this development is as severe as it is for Russian forces. According to AMK_Mapping, Ukrainian advances across the wider Lyman–Sloviansk sector now amount to roughly 190 km², with operations increasingly extending east and southeast of Lyman itself. After clearing earlier Russian infiltrations from northern and southeastern Lyman, Ukrainian forces re-established full control over the city and began pushing east. Forces advancing through the forests towards Torske reportedly drove Russian troops around 8 km from Lyman’s eastern outskirts, while the fields between Lyman and Zarichne were also cleared, pushing Russian positions nearly 9 km eastwards. Importantly, Ukrainian forces are currently engaged in battle for the village of Yampil – why is this significant? Yampil sits on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets River which has acted as a major logistics and accumulation hub for Russia. Yampil had allowed Russian DRG units to cut the supply link to Lyman and Siversk back when Siversk was still in Russian crosshairs. Further south, Ukrainian troops cleared the forests west of Dibrova and retook the village, before advancing along the railway and securing additional strongpoints northeast of the settlement.. This has forced Russian forces to largely abandon their former salient southeast of Lyman and consolidate closer to the Zherebets River.

The counteroffensive has also expanded south of the Siverskyi Donets. Ukrainian forces crossed into Psykunivka and Kryva Luka, secured footholds and began linking these positions with forces around Mykolaivka and the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant. From here, Ukrainian forces launched further attacks east of Mykolaivka, clearing Russian infiltrations and retaking poorly consolidated trench systems and forest positions. Ukrainian troops have since re-entered Rai-Oleksandrivka, taking most of the settlement and pushing east towards Kalenyky.

Importantly, these operations are being supported by an intensified Ukrainian FPV campaign against Russian logistics, particularly around Siversk and Lyman, with AMK_Mapping reporting strikes against supply traffic far behind the immediate frontline.

Zarichne Sector

Zarichne has now become one of the main focal points of the Ukrainian counteroffensive east of Lyman, with assault groups conducting a three-pronged attack aimed at eliminating the remaining Russian bridgehead west of the Zherebets River. From the south, Ukrainian forces are pushing out of the forests east of Lyman and have established a small foothold inside southern Zarichne. At the same time, assault groups are moving along the Lyman–Zarichne road into the industrial area on the southwestern edge of the settlement, where heavy fighting is ongoing. Ukrainian troops are also advancing through the recently recaptured Pynkov Gulley towards Zarichne’s western outskirts. The northern axis has proven considerably more difficult. According to AMK_Mapping, Ukrainian forces consolidated positions in the northern streets and captured agricultural buildings northwest of the village, but Russian drone and artillery coordination has prevented further movement towards the centre. Earlier Ukrainian attempts to cross the Zherebets River near the Torske Fish Farm were also repelled, with further crossing attempts apparently paused for now.

How And Why?

The common trend I have noticed since the collapse of Starlink communications for Russia is an inability to consolidate newly gained positions. We noticed this first in the Zaporizhzhia sector, then in Kupiansk and now fast forward to the last few weeks we’re seeing withdrawals in the Dobropillya sector and the sectors we mentioned above.

The problem with failing to consolidate is that capturing terrain is only the first part of an offensive. Once a position is taken, units need to establish communications, rotate exhausted troops, bring forward ammunition, reinforce defensive positions, coordinate artillery and drones, and create reliable supply routes. If that process breaks down, newly captured areas remain extremely vulnerable to counterattack.

This is where degraded communications can become particularly damaging. Frontline assault groups may still be capable of advancing, but if higher command cannot quickly integrate those gains into a functioning defensive network, those positions become isolated. Ukraine can then exploit gaps before Russian forces have properly entrenched, resupplied or reorganised. In practice, that means Russia may still achieve tactical penetrations, but struggle to convert them into durable territorial gains.

This is where the expanding “Kill Zone” may be continuing to play a crucial role in crippling the consolidation. You might have seen the story I shared about the Russian T-90M that had travelled 12km within its own territory and took up to around 40 drone hits – and this is in the Dobropillya sector. To compound this, we may be seeing the first ripple effects of the mid-range strike campaign Ukraine has been conducting on Russian logistics yet this is difficult to confirm exactly.

And overall, Russia is dealing with some of Ukraine’s most experienced units with high morale such as the 3rd Corps which has been the driving force in the success of the northern Lyman sector. As Suryiak said, this is not a strategically large loss, but this will deal a significant blow to morale up through Russian ranks. A year's worth of progress has been reversed in a matter of weeks and most importantly without much of a fight.