Myanmar Civil War: The Heat Is Rising

Conflict Tracker

Myanmar Civil War Occasionally we get asked to cover the Myanmar conflict, which I will admit has been lacklustre. But there are reasons for this. Firstly, much of the war has been relatively static due to the rainy season. This has limited any major developments besides local engagements and some tactic movements. Secondly, finding accurate sources and more importantly active OSINT sources is itself difficult. Yet, as the rainy season comes to a close, we are beginning to see more movement from the various factions.

Myanmar’s recent fighting has centred on contested supply routes and resistance attacks against military assets, with the clearest reported setbacks for junta forces around Bhamo. However, these tactical losses have not yet translated into the city’s capture.

In Kachin State, KIA-led forces reportedly repelled a junta advance from Bhamo towards resistance-held Mansi on September 13. KIA spokesman Colonel Naw Bu said troops were ambushed near Kaungjar Yan, withdrew after daylong fighting, and encountered another ambush during their retreat. Claims of dozens of junta fatalities remain independently unverified. The immediate outcome was defensive: preventing a breakthrough towards Mansi.

The most considerable action has taken place along the Irrawaddy River, resistance forces reportedly destroyed five military vessels on September 9, including two gunboats. An earlier 15-vessel convoy reportedly lost eight vessels, although seven reached Bhamo. The KIA is imposing substantial losses without completely sealing the supply route. Meanwhile, junta troops have pushed towards Momauk, where a source close to the KIA reported resistance ammunition shortages. These pressures complicate efforts to sustain the siege.

Near Mandalay, resistance drones struck Tada-U Airbase last week. Released footage shows an aircraft being targeted inside a hangar; reports that four aircraft were damaged or destroyed remain unconfirmed. Military flights continued afterwards, indicating that the attack disrupted operations without disabling the base. Its significance lies in exposing aircraft to attack on the ground. This is the footage we released just a few days ago.

In Rakhine, the Arakan Army retains control of 14 of the state’s 17 townships and continues pressing towards Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. Reporting describes the junta’s counteroffensive as faltering, but neither city’s capture is confirmed. Airstrikes reportedly killed at least five civilians last week. The available evidence therefore points to continued resistance pressure and costly junta resupply efforts, while major territorial breakthroughs remain unconfirmed across the principal fronts covered by this update.