Major Offensive Against Ethiopia, New Phase of Iran War Kupiansk Front

Iran-USA-Israel

Over the past 24 hours, the Iran conflict has continued to escalate across multiple domains, with both sides adapting rather than slowing down.

On the military front, U.S. and Israeli strikes have focused on degrading Iran’s launch capability rather than eliminating it entirely. Around 77% of known tunnel access points to underground missile facilities have reportedly been hit, targeting tempo and coordination. However, the core infrastructure remains intact, meaning Iran retains the ability to sustain operations over time .

Iran has responded with continued missile activity, including a significant strike toward the Dimona area, with at least one impact causing casualties. Iranian officials are now openly claiming “missile dominance,” indicating confidence in their ability to continue or even intensify strikes. It seems Iran has moved to targeting smaller cities, noting that interceptors have been sent to major cities due to possible shortages.

Regionally, tensions are widening. Saudi Arabia has expelled Iranian diplomats, while Iraq has halted production at key energy fields. Maritime threats remain active, with Iran signalling it can selectively control access through the Strait of Hormuz while still exporting oil from Kharg Island.

Ethiopia-FANO

FANO militants have launched a major offensive in the South Gondar Zone of the Amhara region in Ethiopia, targeting government forces. Regional sources claim up to 650 government soldiers have been killed, with 418 captured on March 18 alone. The operation was reportedly launched in memory of Major General Wubante Abate, a key Fano leader killed in 2024.

Multiple local administrations have since collapsed following coordinated assaults between March 18–19. Heavy fighting across Dera, Farta, Guna-Begemidir, and Lay-Gayint resulted in the deaths of senior officials and dozens of militia personnel. In Nefas-Mewcha, Fano briefly seized the town, capturing officials and vehicles before withdrawing. Regime reinforcements have since moved in, while large-scale deployments and shelling continue to stabilize deteriorating positions. Fano (Amhara militias) Fano is a loose network of Amhara ethnic militias, not a single unified command. They are primarily aligned with Amhara nationalist interests and operate independently of the federal government. Their goal is to defend Amhara regions and push back against what they see as marginalisation by Addis Ababa. While they were previously aligned with the federal government during the Tigray War, they are now actively fighting against it.

Ethiopian Federal Government / ENDF (Regime forces) The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), along with regional militias and local administrators, represents the central government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. They are attempting to maintain territorial control and suppress insurgencies like Fano. They also coordinate with regional security forces.

Russia-Ukraine

Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have made steady gains on the northeastern front, consolidating positions around Kupiansk. The northern part of Petropavlivka is now fully secured, with continued advances from the east and south following control of wooded areas along the Kupiansk road. Further south, Russian units have taken Pishchane and now control roughly half of Kurylivka, pushing up to trench systems in the centre of the settlement. From these positions, infiltration operations have begun into the former Kupiansk foundry, while additional units are probing into high-rise buildings in Kivsharivka.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have achieved limited gains in western Kupiansk, securing the central hospital and nearby buildings, along with positions north along Mechnykova and Davydova-Luchytskoho streets. As discussed, Russia appears focused on consolidating the eastern bank of the Oskil River after previously failing to fully secure its foothold in Kupiansk. Establishing control on this side, even gradually, would provide stronger staging grounds for future attempts to retake the city. However, Ukraine has reinforced positions north of Kupiansk, which remains the most viable approach into the city without major natural obstacles. This sector is likely to become a key point of resistance and a significant challenge for any further Russian advance.

Suriyak is source for map and information for Kupiansk. He’s great for Russia-Ukraine, but a clear bias when reporting in MENA region.

Sources available upon request