Is The Horn of Africa Turning Into A Much Larger Regional Conflict?

Ethiopia And RSF Connection

Has the Sudan War Become a Red Sea Proxy Conflict? Ethiopia has been hosting and training thousands of RSF fighters on its northern border for months. According to Reuters, Ethiopia is hosting a large RSF base near the Sudan border, marking its first direct support in the conflict. Around 4,300 fighters are reportedly training there, with UAE logistical backing. Asosa airport has been reinforced, including a drone control station, underscoring deepening regional entanglements. Reuters Source

Ethiopian Conflict

Ethiopia has begun redeploying federal forces toward Tigray following renewed clashes with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), marking the most serious escalation since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. The buildup suggests preparations for a prolonged northern conflict that could draw in Eritrea, which is reportedly backing the TPLF despite past hostilities. Recent TDF offensives targeted disputed areas near the Amhara border, citing failures to implement the peace deal. Eritrean forces are reportedly positioning inside Tigray, raising the risk of a broader regional proxy war involving Red Sea powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. See Full Report

Drawing on analysis by Clement Molin, the 2022 Pretoria Peace Deal is increasingly fragile. The Tigray war ended in military stalemate, but internal TPLF divisions and territorial concessions to Amhara reignited tensions. Federal attempts to disarm Amhara militias triggered a wider insurgency, with Fano forces now controlling much of the countryside and forming the Amhara Fano National Movement. Their sustained battlefield successes have tied down the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), limiting its ability to project power externally, including toward Eritrea, and raising the risk that Ethiopia’s internal fragmentation could spill into a broader regional confrontation. Read Clement Molin’s full thread

Is UAE Big Push Leading To A Regional Catastrophe?

The UAE has attempted to reshape the balance of power by a heavy use of soft power. With large cashflow they have been able to mark their influence significantly in many African countries. Besides the more obvious reasons of establishing military bases and keep trade routes under their influence for power projection there's an existential and economic hand at play here. Food security is existential for the UAE, which imports over 85–90% of its food. To hedge against global supply shocks, it has acquired or leased large-scale farmland across Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Mozambique, securing agricultural production and water access abroad. At the same time, Africa’s vast mineral wealth strengthens Emirati economic leverage. Gold from Sudan and Mali, alongside cobalt, rare earths, uranium, and oil, feeds into Dubai’s role as a major global commodities hub. Sudanese gold in particular flows heavily to the UAE, Now there is a clear division of power. For the UAE to branch out from a small oil-rich emirate into a regional powerhouse, it needed to upset the status quo — and to do that, it had to fund revisionist groups within the states in which it sought influence. This was naturally going to unsettle the traditional power brokers of the region (Turkey, Egypt, and the Saudis).

While making many friends in Africa, it has also raised eyebrows among its Middle Eastern neighbours. As we have discussed previously, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have begun a coordinated push to counter the UAE, primarily in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. First, they blocked airspace for vital UAE deliveries to the RSF, including in African states that fall under their influence. This is another important point, these regional conflicts exist and increase in severity only through the backing of their sponsors. Ethiopia for instance must accept UAE choosing it as a major logistics hub, training RSF fighters (making it a legitimate target) because the UAE bankrolls much of Ethiopia.

With neither the UAE backing down or its rivals, traditional borders will continue to blur as different proxy groups aim to assert influence in an existential struggle that is being funded by opposing Middle East actors.

A very, very detailed map created my Molin. Well worth the read over.

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