ISSUE #440📅29 Sept 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition moves from the release on bail of five RAF Fairford suspects to renewed US-Iran diplomacy, with Qatari mediators once again carrying messages between the two sides.
Elsewhere, America’s two-decade military presence in Iraq is ending, Washington and Beijing are trimming tariffs on selected goods, and Israel has killed senior Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza.
Then, today’s Conflict Tracker turns to northern Ethiopia, where renewed fighting is reshaping alliances across the Horn of Africa and could complicate external support for Sudan’s RSF.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 29 Sept 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Five men arrested in RAF Fairford incident released on police bail
Five British men aged between 23 and 25 have been released on police bail after being arrested near RAF Fairford on suspicion of explosives offences and preparing a terrorist act. The arrests followed reports of three suspicious vehicles travelling towards the Gloucestershire airbase, prompting the evacuation of approximately 85 nearby households while military experts examined the vehicles. Counter-terrorism police said the men remain subject to strict movement and contact restrictions as investigators consider several possibilities, including potential foreign-state involvement, although no connection has been established.
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Iran’s Araghchi meets Qatari mediators as US calls for nuclear talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York to discuss an amended proposal aimed at ending the conflict and restarting indirect negotiations with the United States. Tehran’s plan would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, eases oil sanctions and observes a broader ceasefire. President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s existing terms and denied offering sanctions relief, although both sides continue communicating through mediators as major disagreements remain over sequencing and nuclear concessions.
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Final US forces to exit Iraq after two decades
The United States is set to withdraw its remaining troops from their final bases in Iraq by 30 September, completing an agreement reached by Washington and Baghdad in 2024. The departure ends the latest American military mission in the country, which began with the 2003 invasion, paused after the 2011 withdrawal and resumed in 2014 to fight Islamic State. Iraqi and Kurdish security officials have warned that the loss of US intelligence, logistical support and air capabilities could strengthen Iran-backed militias and allow Islamic State sleeper cells to regroup.
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China and US pledge tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods
The United States and China have identified US$30 billion each in non-sensitive goods that could receive reciprocal tariff reductions under their new bilateral Board of Trade. China’s list includes US agricultural products, timber, cosmetics and medical equipment, while Washington’s covers Chinese toys, household appliances, tableware and seasonal decorations; soybeans, semiconductors and electric vehicles were excluded. Neither government has specified the size or implementation date of the reductions, although both sides extended their broader trade truce until 10 January while negotiations continue.
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Israel forces kill Hamas commander Izz Al-Din Al-Beik in Gaza attack
An Israeli airstrike killed Izz al-Din al-Beik, the commander of Hamas’s armed wing in northern Gaza, in Gaza City’s Nasr neighbourhood on Tuesday, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials. Hamas confirmed his death, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz said al-Beik had been involved in planning attacks and recruiting fighters. Gaza health officials said another person later died from injuries sustained in the strike, which occurred as Israel intensifies attacks on Hamas figures despite the October ceasefire.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · africa
Ethiopia Erupts Into War Once More
Renewed war in northern Ethiopia is reshaping regional alliances, threatening stability across the Horn of Africa and potentially complicating external support for Sudan’s RSF.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Geopolitics Northern Ethiopia has plunged into renewed fighting since 22 September, threatening to unravel the Pretoria agreement that ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war. Tigrayan forces and allied armed groups have attacked federal positions across Tigray, Amhara and Afar, following the announcement of an opposition alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
On 23 September, Tigrayan forces seized airports in Mekelle, Aksum and Shire, prompting flight cancellations. Their cooperation with the Amhara Fano National Movement represents a significant reversal: Fano fighters previously fought against Tigrayan forces. However, the opposition alliance remains fragmented, with disputed membership and no demonstrated unified command across all participating groups.
The southern front has produced the clearest recent government gain. On 28 September, government-aligned forces claimed Alamata, a supply hub approximately 120 kilometres south of Mekelle. Reuters verified footage showing their soldiers inside the town, while diplomatic sources reported its fall. This strengthens the federal position along Tigray’s southern approaches, although it does not establish control over the entire surrounding countryside.
Elsewhere, conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED reports fighting along the Kobo–Tumuga axis, around Sekota, and near the Tekeze River at May Gaba and Tslimoy. Government forces have regained ground around Sekota. Fighting near Lalibela also disrupted aviation, illustrating how operations have spread beyond Tigray itself.
In Afar, Tigrayan forces have reportedly captured Erebti, alongside advances involving the Afar rebel group Ugugumo. The strategic concern is pressure on Ethiopia’s trade connection to Djibouti. However, ACLED’s latest assessment says that corridor remains open; claims that rebels have already severed Ethiopia’s principal supply route are unsupported.
Drone strikes, disrupted communications and mounting hospital admissions complicate verification. Available open-source evidence therefore shows several active battle zones, rather than a reliably mapped continuous frontline. Renewed allegations of Eritrean involvement also raise the risk of regional escalation, although Eritrea denies supporting the rebels.
How This Affects Sudan
We mentioned a few months back that the various internal civil-wars could escalate into something far greater such as a regional conflict, we are now seeing that. The renewed fighting could also complicate the position of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces. A widening Ethiopian war may draw Addis Ababa’s attention and military resources inward, potentially constraining reported support for RSF operations against Sudanese army positions in Blue Nile. It could also place competing demands on the UAE’s regional commitments
Map from Thomas Van Linge - A few days outdated so treated with relative caution.
TODAY IN HISTORY (Sep 29, 1923): British mandate in Palestine
Set in motion by the Balfour Declaration of 1917, the British mandate for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine was finally approved by the Council of the League of Nations and came into force this day in 1923.
