ISSUE #398📅Friday, 25 July 2025⏱7 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Tensions continue to climb in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, with Thailand’s border conflict, Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, and Ukraine’s defence funding all commanding global attention.
France’s recognition of Palestine breaks with U.S. policy and sends fresh ripples through diplomatic circles, while Australia and the UK lock in a 50-year AUKUS submarine deal that deepens Indo-Pacific defence ties.
Today we dive into the military comparisons of Thailand and Cambodia. Thailand has a far larger and robust modern military, while Cambodia’s is land-focussed but has had significant Chinese backing.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 25 Jul 2025
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Thailand rejects international mediation to end fighting with Cambodia
Thailand has firmly rejected international offers to mediate its escalating border conflict with Cambodia, including proposals from the U.S., China, and ASEAN. Thai officials say they will only consider bilateral talks once Cambodia halts what they describe as “unilateral attacks,” preferring to use established channels like the Joint Boundary Commission rather than involving international courts. With at least 16 people killed and continued shelling along the border, the standoff has become the most intense between the two countries in over a decade.
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Iran and Europeans hold nuclear talks with questions over future UN sanctions
Iran and senior diplomats from Britain, France, and Germany began face-to-face nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25, marking their first direct engagement since June’s U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. These talks focus on Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA and the fate of roughly 400 kilograms of near‑weapons‑grade uranium, as European leaders warn they may trigger a U.N. sanctions “snapback” by the end of August if no concrete progress is made. Iran, meanwhile, reaffirmed its commitment to uranium enrichment and dismissed any proposals to extend U.N. Resolution 2231 as legally and politically baseless.
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UK and Australia deepen AUKUS submarine pact with 50-year treaty
Australia and the UK have signed a 50-year defence treaty to solidify their long-term cooperation under the AUKUS pact, with a key focus on jointly developing nuclear-powered submarines. The agreement is expected to generate tens of thousands of skilled jobs and support up to £20 billion in British defence exports over the next 25 years. While the U.S. continues to review its role in the broader AUKUS arrangement, both London and Canberra have reaffirmed the alliance’s strategic value in maintaining security across the Indo-Pacific and strengthening NATO-aligned defence ties.
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France breaks from US & other Western nations to recognise Palestinian state
France has become the first major G7 country to formally recognise the State of Palestine, announcing plans to make it official at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2025, a move signalling solidarity with the two-state solution amid ongoing conflict in Gaza. French President Macron defended the decision as a diplomatic effort to support peace, emphasising that it challenges, rather than emboldens, Hamas by reinforcing the authority of the Palestinian Authority. The announcement drew sharp backlash from Israeli and U.S. officials, who condemned the move as undermining Israel’s security and rewarding extremist groups.
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Zelenskyy plans to ask Europe for help to pay Ukraine’s soldiers
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has called on European allies to help fund increased wages for Ukrainian soldiers, arguing that competitive pay is critical to boosting morale and sustaining recruitment as the war enters its fourth year. While Western support has largely focused on weapons and military equipment, Zelenskyy emphasised that "the service members themselves can be the weapon that protects everyone." His appeal comes as Ukraine also secures three new Patriot missile systems and enters talks to finance seven more, aiming to strengthen its defences against a surge in Russian aerial attacks.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · military
Cambodia vs Thailand: Who Holds the Military Edge?
Your daily dose of geopolitical updates and strategic analysis. Unbiased, but not unbased.
Basedment Analysis
ON PAPER COMPARISON
It is the second day of the border skirmishes, in which suspended Thai PM has said this might turn into a larger conflict. We can already see the influences behind both nations military doctrines with some of the videos released. For instance, there have been several videos Cambodian MLRS firing into Thailand. While, Thailand has released footage of drones, air strikes, modern equipment. As you will see, it correlates with the statistics below. Cambodia
Global Military Ranking: #95 of 145, Power Index score ~2.0752
Total Personnel: ~231,000 (221,000 active; ~10,000 paramilitary) — no reserves listed
Army Strength: ~85,000 soldiers organized into eleven infantry divisions with integrated armour and artillery
Defence Budget: ~US $5.7–5.9 billion (≈1.4–1.5% of GDP)
Aspect
Cambodia (Smaller, Ground‑focus)
Thailand (Larger, Multi-domain Power)
Personnel
231k (all active); no formal reserves
~607k total (active + reserves + paramilitary)
Ground Forces
~644 tanks, emphasis on MRLS rocket units
~400 tanks, larger APC fleet, wide artillery
Air Power
No combat jets; limited to helicopters
112 combat aircraft including F‑16s & Gripens
Naval Power
Small coastal patrol navy (~13 vessels)
Robust navy: carrier, frigate, marines, UAVs
Budget (USD)
~$5.7–5.9 B
Strategic Role
Focused on infantry and artillery
Balanced power across air, sea, and ground
GEOGRAPHY:
Any protracted conflict here would be horrible for both sides. This is an area that is extremely dense in jungle tundra, with extreme heat conditions and limited logistics capabilities.
Right now, the major area of conflict is happening at the temple of Preah Vihear. The geography is significantly in favour of Thailand, they control the high ground section of a continuous stretch of ridges. This limits movement and exposure of the heavily land-focussed Cambodian military.
There are limited routes for either side to make armoured advances, all which would be a dream come true for any artillery or airforce crews. Roads and passes are limited in size and are flanked by ridges.
CHINA’S ROLE:
Cambodia has a strong history with China, the smaller nation has been working with the Chinese military to increase military readiness. The joint exercise involves coordinated naval, air, and land operation focused on enhancing counterterrorism capabilities and interoperability. Notably, it marks the first deployment of Chinese air force helicopters and radar units in a cross-border drill with Cambodia.
China has upgraded Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base with new docks, radar, and command facilities to boost maritime surveillance and coastal defence. Though too shallow for large warships, it can host Chinese Type 056 corvettes. The upgrades support Cambodia’s strategy to counter Thai and Vietnamese pressure. From 2018 to 2023, over 93% of Cambodia’s military imports came from China.
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 25, 306 AD): Constantine I is proclaimed Roman Emperor by his troops, marking the rise of one of Rome’s most influential rulers. Though the title was not officially recognised by all factions of the Roman Empire, his troops’ support set in motion a power struggle that would eventually lead to Constantine becoming the sole emperor and transforming the empire, including the foundation of Constantinople and the promotion of Christianity.
